The overarching objective of BOHEMIA is to identify priorities and themes for Future European R&I policy and to provide a description of the issues that should be addressed by R&I policy and funding. The time horizon considered in the project is 2040, by when results of research and innovation activities funded by the next European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation are likely to have an impact in practice. In order to achieve this overarching objective, five main tasks are proposed:
Task 1 analyzes a wide range of foresight and strategic intelligence source, addressing different types of future developments: emerging societal challenges, innovation opportunities, new R&I practices, and wider contextual developments. The analysis of these future developments will distinguish trends, key drivers, and outliers (i.e. weak signals and wildcards) that may give rise to disruptive and unexpected developments.
The information on contextual developments in particular are feed into Task 2 and will be used to develop meta-scenarios at two levels: global meta-scenarios of wider societal and global developments, and domain-specific meta-scenarios exploring future contexts for specific fields in which specific R&I topics may play an important role.
The Delphi survey, prepared in Task 3 and implemented in Task 4, draws on a unique and innovative methodology (“Dynamic Argumentative Delphi” DAD) that allows not only assessing Delphi statements, but also to support or question the statements by proposing and assessing arguments associated to the statements. The preparation of the Delphi draws on inputs from both Tasks 1 (societal challenges, innovation opportunities and new R&I practices identified) and Task 2 (challenges and opportunities derived from the meta-scenarios), which will be further subject to an online-supported interview programme.
The final Task 5 aims to move from the Delphi assessments to policy analysis. A methodology is suggested that is composed of six main building blocks, each reflecting a different perspective to be taken into account in the prioritization of topics for future R&I policy: (i) Delphi Analysis of assessments; (ii) Rationality Analysis of the potential of the priorities to further European policy goals; (iii) Robustness Analysis of the topics against the backdrop of different meta-scenarios; (iv) Feasibility Analysis, involving an online consultation, in order to elicit stakeholder opinions and associated conflicts of interest and potentials for synergies; (v) Policy Relevance Analysis, looking into the question whether the priorities identified thus far represent a case for EU-level policy action or not; an analysis that will be core to a validation workshop with representatives from the EC, other EU institutions and selected experts.
The project draws on a team of highly experienced foresight and R&I policy experts, who have been involved in several key foresight and R&I policy projects at national and European level, including those mentioned in the call for tender. AIT (overall coordination and leading Tasks 1 Analysis of Foresight Sources and 5 Interpretation and Policy implications) has a long-standing track record in matters of foresight and its use in the context of R&I policy at regional, national, European and international levels, and covering also a broad range of sectoral domains. ISIS (coordination of Task 2 on meta-scenarios) has a strong track record in scenario development, addressing domains such as energy, transport and cities, but also global developments. IP/Prospectiva (coordination of Task 4 Delphi survey) has substantial expertise in developing and implementing both Delphi-survey concepts and technology, and extensive experience with the use of online tools in the context of policy research and public participation. Finally, Fraunhofer-ISI (in charge of Task 2 Preparation of Delphi survey) disposes of excellent expertise in Delphi and other foresight methods, but can also draw on a broad range of thematic competencies for policy analysis and development.